Yearly Archives: 2009

Social networking 4 your business

I presentation I gave on June 10th 2009 at Trentino Sviluppo, local agency in charge of developing local businesses. It is about the how and why (and why not) of using social networking systems such as Facebook or Twitter for small businesses. The slides are released under Creative Commons By-Attribution so share them, play with them, tear them apart! The only exception are the two photos below for which I don’t know who the copyright holder is. If you know please get in contact with me. Thanks!

Dump 10 Facebook friends and get a free sandwich!

whopper sacrifice screenshot
Aggressive and creative marketing campaign by Burger King.

What would you do for a free Whopper? Now is the time to put your fair-weather Web friendships to the test. Install Whopper Sacrifice on your Facebook profile, and we’ll reward you with a free flame-broiled Whopper when you sacrifice 10 of your friends.

InsideFacebook reports that in one week, the app was used by 82,000 people to delete over 230,000 friendships on Facebook. Then Facebook placed some restrictions on the application and Burger King decided to conclude their campaign. In fact, Burger King got what it wanted: attention! In few days!
Creative use of social networking marketing!!!

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Trento is the capital of Economics from 29 May to 1 June: two Nobel prizes and much more!

It is once again time for Trento Festival of Economics!!! The fourth edition of the Festival of Economics will animate the city of Trento from 29 May to 1 June.
Economists, legal experts, entrepreneurs, managers, politicians, sociologists and journalists will come together to publicly debate a central issue for our future: how to conciliate identity and globalisation in a time of crisis.

Economists of indisputable prestige coming from the best universities in the world will help us to clarify our ideas. They include two winners of the Nobel Prize for Economics. The first to participate in the Trento Festival will be George Akerlof, who will explain how important decisions are often inspired by “animal spirits” and how these instincts represent one of the causes of the current recession, with a sudden collapse in trust, a factor which governments will undoubtedly have to take into account. The second economist, James Heckman, will help us to understand how economics and psychology are the key to understanding our identity and personality.

It is possible to follow the Festival of Economics live on the Web TV!
And if you are coming to Trento you can do it with carpooling (search for a ride or offer a ride to Trento. At the OtherEconomy square there will be also a stand of Jungo!, a dynamic carpooling system that we are testing in Trento!
Ah, and I’m going to host someone I totally don’t know via couchsurfing! So, if you are coming to Trento for the festival contact me, I probably can host you as well!
I think carpooling and couchsurfing are two good examples of an economic system that is finally going to change … for the better! Good! I see you around in Trento!

In the following a copy and paste the program of the festival. But you can also download it as a single pdf file (program).

Continue reading

Links for 2009 05 20

  • Social Influence, Binary Decisions and Collective Dynamics by Dunia Lopez-Pintado, D.J.Watts.
    In this paper we address the general question of how social influence determines collective outcomes for large populations of individuals faced with binary decisions. First, we define conditions under which the behavior of individuals making binary decisions can be described in terms of what we call an influence-response function: a one-dimensional function of the (weighted) number of individuals choosing each of the alternatives.
    We demonstrate that, under the assumptions of global and anonymous interactions, general knowledge of the influence-response functions is sufficient to compute equilibrium, and even non-equilibrium, properties of the collective dynamics. By enabling us to treat in a consistent manner classes of decisions that have previously been analyzed, our framework allows us to find similarities between apparently quite different kinds of decision situations, and conversely to identify
    important differences between decisions that would otherwise appear very similar.

  • Leading the Herd Astray: An Experimental Study of Self-fulfilling Prophecies in an Artificial Cultural Market By SALGANIK, WATTS
    Individuals influence each others’ decisions about cultural products such as songs, books, and movies; but to what extent can the perception of success become a “self-fulfilling prophecy”? We have explored this question experimentally by artificially inverting the true popularity of songs in an online “music market,” in which 12,207 participants listened to and downloaded songs by unknown bands. We found that most songs experienced self-fulfilling prophecies, in which perceived—but initially false—popularity became real over time. We also found, however, that the inversion was not self-fulfilling for the market as a whole, in part because the very best songs recovered their popularity in the long run. (…) These results, although partial and speculative, suggest a new approach to the study of cultural markets, and indicate the potential of web-based experiments to explore the social psychological origin of other macrosocio-logical phenomena.

  • CiteULike: The Structure of Information Pathways in a Social Communication Network
    by: Kossinets, Kleinberg, Watts
    We study the temporal dynamics of communication using on-line data, including e-mail communication among the faculty and staff of a large university over a two-year period. We formulate a temporal notion of "distance" in the underlying social network by measuring the minimum time required for information to spread from one node to another — a concept that draws on the notion of vector-clocks from the study of distributed computing systems. We find that such temporal measures provide structural insights that are not apparent from analyses of the pure social network topology. The network backbone to be the subgraph consisting of edges on which information has the potential to flow the quickest. We find that the backbone is a sparse graph with a concentration of both highly embedded edges and long-range bridges — a finding that sheds new light on the relationship between tie strength and connectivity in social networks.

  • GuruMine: a Pattern Mining System for Discovering Leaders and Tribes …
    By Yahoo guy. GuruMine, a pattern mining system for the discovery of leaders, i.e., influential users in social networks, and their tribes, i.e., a set of users usually influenced by the same leader over several actions. Actions may be as simple as tagging resources (urls) as in del.icio.us, rating songs as in Yahoo! Music, or movies as in Yahoo! Movies, or users buying gadgets such as cameras, handholds, etc. and blogging a review on the gadgets. The assumption is that actions performed by a user can be seen by their network friends. Users seeing their friends actions are sometimes tempted to perform those actions.

Iphone and dynamic carpooling

I got an Iphone recently so sometime I wonder through the tons of applications made for the iPhone and often they are very unexpected and crazy.

By the way, today my mind got the “Wow, the iphone is the perfect tool for dynamic carpooling, being GPS-enabled!” (dynamic carpooling being an old interest of mine)

Of course there are already some applications for iPhone for carpooling: Avego and Carticipate seem the most advanced. What is amazing of iphone for carpooling is that you don’t have to enter your common routes by hand but have your iphone do all the work for you.

The app works by tracking a user’s driving habits and then matching them up with people looking for rides. It’s kinda like Match.com for potential serial killers and would be victims. Using the GPS-enabled iPhone, the app will track common routes the user takes. The app then notifies the user of potential victims..er, riders. From there the app will suggest a place they can meet. It will also show a picture of the person so you use a little hot-or-not in your decision making. (from cleantechnica.com)

By the way, we are eventually starting with Jungo in Trento. Jungo is a way to encourage hitchhiking by giving members a card which gives additional security. At the moment it is not empowered by ICT devices such as Iphones but this might change in future. First membership cards are arriving and Friday we were interviewed by the RAI television, and we did some holloywoodesque let’s-mimic-how-jungo-works camera shots. Lots of fun being an actor!

Interestingly for 2 months, 6 volunteers (called Kerouac) have been testing dynamic ridesharing readiness here in Trentino, along the Trento center – Mesiano – Povo route. For the first 4 weeks they have been doing normal hitchhiking twice a day while for the second 4 weeks, after some advertisement about Jungo, they have been doing hitchhiking using the Jungo cards. Overall they collected 750 rides!
Interestingly their average waiting time (AWT) decreased. And interestingly as well, females have smaller AWT. Males moved from a AWT of 22 minutes during the first 4 weeks to 11.4 minutes while females moved from 6 minutes to 2.7 minutes! Well, 2.7 minutes is definitely much less time than waiting for the bus!!!

This difference of performances based on gender reminded me of some research about this I read time ago.
In Sharing Nicely: On shareable goods and the emergence of sharing as a modality of economic production (best paper I ever read by the way, and released under Creative Commons!), Yochai Benkler reports some research from the paper “Mating Habits of Slugs: Dynamic Carpool Formation in the I-95/I-395 Corridor of Northern Virginia” by Frank Spielberg & Phillip Shapiro (a paper I was not able to download because it’s behind a gated journal, can you help me?):

In a deviation from gender-neutral pickup practices, solo women will not usually enter a car with two men already in it. “Unrelated” slugs on a line, however, will match up, whether male or female, irrespective of the gender of the driver.
This underscores the fact that personal security fears may be a serious obstacle to carpooling with strangers.
The matching practices suggest that security is improved by combining more than one rider with each solo driver, where the riders themselves are not preorganized in groups. Each pair—driver plus each rider, and both riders vis-à-vis the driver—provides each individual with some security against an aggressive stranger. The importance of strength in numbers and lack of personal relationship is indicated by the fact that solo women will join two men in a car if the woman and man were both in line and no relationship between the two men is indicated.
Carpoolers on this model seem to assume a prevalence and distribution of aggressive proclivities in the population that places a low probability on two randomly associated individuals cooperating aggressively. Given such a model of the prevalence and distribution of aggressive tendencies, fully impersonal cooperation can then be seen as safer than partially impersonal cooperation, where some subset of participants have a preexisting relationship.

And on a similar line, I read this table from “Car pooling clubs: solution for the affiliation problem in traditional/dynamic ridesharing systems” by Gonçalo Correia, José Manuel Viegas which reports evidence from “Levin, et al. Measurement of ‘Psychological’ Factors and their role in Transportation behaviour” (another paper behind gated journal I need help with):

Research by Levin, et al [5] at the University of Iowa reached the conclusion that gender of the potential poolers was of little consequence when the other part was an acquaintance, but became of great consequence when the other part was a stranger, see Table 1.
As can be seen in the table, the desirability of ride sharing decreases with the increase of strangers in the pool, especially for females. These results suggest that gender and prior knowledge of the potential pooler combine to determine the desirability of the other person for ridesharing. Moreover, different combination of these factors can lead to very different results: when the driver is a Female there’s a great difference between transporting two acquaintances-one nonaquaintance (10.84 points) and three nonaquaintances (3.49 points).

 

Male Respondent

Female Respondent

Single Rider

 

 

Male acquaintance

10.06

12.50

Female acquaintance

10.47

12.32

Male nonaquaintances

7.00

3.29

Female nonaquaintances

9.50

6.53

Three Riders

 

 

Three acquaintances

10.76

12.15

Two nonacquaintances – one nonacquaintance

9.70

10.84

One nonacquaintance – two nonacquaintances

9.03

7.69

Three nonacquaintances

8.16

3.49

Table 1. Carpool Desirability (15 point scale) as a function of gender and Acquaintance-ship of Potential Ridesharers (Source: Levin, et al., 1976)

 

Finally, while browsing for these links I found a two-days workshop titled Real-Time Rides: A Smart Roadmap to Energy and Infrastructure Efficiency held very recently at MIT which contains most of the pointers to researchers and companies currently working on dynamic carpooling and the opportunities opened about it by new GPS-ready devices.

Your friends may depend on your genes.

From the “social network” page on Wikipedia:

Some researchers have suggested that human social networks may have a genetic basis.[15] Using a sample of twins from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, they found that in-degree (the number of times a person is named as a friend), transitivity (the probability that two friends are friends with one another), and betweenness centrality (the number of paths in the network that pass through a given person) are all significantly heritable. Existing models of network formation cannot account for this intrinsic node variation, so the researchers propose an alternative “Attract and Introduce” model that can explain heritability and many other features of human social networks.[16]

[15] # ^ “Genes and the Friends You Make”. Wall Street Journal. January 27, 2009. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123302040874118079.html.
[16] # ^ Fowler, J. H. (10 February 2009). “Model of Genetic Variation in Human Social Networks” (PDF). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (6): 1720–1724. doi:10.1073/pnas.0806746106. http://jhfowler.ucsd.edu/genes_and_social_networks.pdf

Links for 2009 04 30

  • Paper "De-anonymizing Social Networks"
    WOW!
    We show that a third of the users who can be verified to have accounts on both Twitter, a popular microblogging service, and Flickr, an online photo-sharing site, can be re-identified in the anonymous Twitter graph with only a 12% error rate.
    Our de-anonymization algorithm is based purely on the network topology, does not require creation of a large number of dummy "sybil" nodes, is robust to noise and all existing defenses, and works even when the overlap between the target network and the adversary’s auxiliary information is small.

Links for 2009 04 27

  • Google Flu Trends | How does this work?
    Simply based on what people search in Google, Google is able to estimate flu activity up to two weeks faster than traditional flu surveillance systems.

  • Swine flu: Twitter’s power to misinform | Net Effect
    I think it’s only a matter of time before that the next generation of cyber-terrorists – those who are smart about social media, are familiar with modern information flows, and are knowledgeable about human networks – take advantage of the escalating fears over the next epidemic and pollute the networked public sphere with scares that would essentially paralyze the global economy. Often, such tactics would bring much more destruction than the much-feared cyberwar and attacks on physical – rather than human – networks.

Designing Your Reputation System and Designing Social Interfaces

10 practical questions for designing a reputation system. This talk was (partially!) given at the 2008 IA Summit. By Bryce Glass on Slideshare

Designing Social Interfaces – workshop talk given at Web 2.0 Expo

Negativity: not shown, not present

From an old paper of mine, note the message by eBay founder.

In fact, Resnick and Zeckhauser (2002) consider two explanations related to the success of eBay’s feedback system:
(1) “The system may still work, even if it is unreliable or unsound, if its participants think it is working. (…) It is the perception of how the system operates, not the facts, that matters” and
(2) “Even though the system may not work well in the statistical tabulation sense, it may function successfully if it swiftly turns against undesirable sellers (…), and if it imposes costs for a seller to get established.”
They also argue that: “on the other hand, making dissatisfaction more visible might destroy people’s overall faith in eBay as a generally safe marketplace.”

This seems confirmed by a message posted on eBay by its founder in 1996:
“Most people are honest. And they mean well. Some people go out of their way to make things right. I’ve heard great stories about the honesty of people here. But some people are dishonest: or deceptive. This is true here, in the newsgroups, in the classifieds, and right next door. It’s a fact of life. But here, those people can’t hide. We’ll drive them away. Protect others from them. This grand hope depends on your active participation” (Omidyar, 1996).

On eBay, whose goal, after all, is to allow a large number of commercial transactions to happen, it seems that positive feelings and perceptions can create a successful and active community more than a sound Trust Metric and reputation system. This means that the fact that a Trust Metric or reputation system is proved to be attack resistant does not have
an immediate effect on how users perceive it and hence, on how this helps in keeping the community healthy and working.

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